1. Pay Attention To Everyone Else’s Predictions And Slavishly Follow Them

Listen to who people in the industry are predicting. Don’t go with any wild, outside the box predictions just because YOU have a hunch. Oh, you think Jeremy Renner could sneak in a shocking Best Actor win? You are wrong. That isn’t happening. Ever. Get your picks from people who know what they’re talking about. Entertainment Weekly. Roger Ebert. The Gurus of Gold. Trust me. This will help. Don’t go it alone, and don’t think you can intuit some magic insight about how Oscar voters vote that no one else can divine. That is stupid. Let everyone else in the office weed themselves out of the pool by making these wild stabs.

The only surprises that happen at the Oscars are the ones that, really, NO ONE sees. There may be a shocking win on Sunday night. I promise you it won’t be one you picked.

2. If You Can Help It, Don’t See Any Of The Nominated Films

Seeing the movies will just make you biased. Perhaps “An Education” was your favorite movie of the year. You don’t want that clouding up the fact that it has no prayer of ever winning Best Picture. The Oscars care not for your subjective whims, Film Boy.

3. The Pool Is Won Or Lost In The Annoying Small Categories

Everyone will pick the same winners in the main categories (only Picture and Director are relative tossups at this point). After that, your pool will come down to categories like Cinematography, Costume Design, and the dreaded Live Action Short and Animated Short categories. When it comes to all short film and documentary categories, it’s important to ask yourself one question: Is this movie about the Holocaust? If it is, check that box.

4. Don’t Submit More Than One Entry

This isn’t March Madness. It’s an Oscar pool. Don’t be Mr. Hedgebetter.

5. Don’t Submit Your Picks Until The Last Minute

You don’t want to submit your picks early, and then see one of your picks turn up arrested for arson, or find out that Mo’Nique killed her good will by agreeing to co-star in “Norbit 2.” Remember: these are actors you’re picking. They do stupid things. Don’t give them time to ruin you forever.

Crazy Heart is directed by Scott Cooper and adapted from the 1987 novel of the same name, written by Thomas Cobb. The main character, Bad Blake (Jeff Bridges) is a mélange of country and Western music bad boys, namely Waylon Jennings, Kris Kristofferson and Merle Haggard. Blake’s past is best summed up in a line from one of his songs, “I used to be somebody, but now I am somebody else.” The person he is now is an alcoholic drifter, wandering from one small-town, low-paying gig to another, all the while splitting time between cheap motels and his dilapidated old car. It’s never fully explained, but part of Blake’s wandering seems to revolve around a former protégé, Tommy Sweet (Colin Farrell), and the assumption he’s left Blake alone in the wake and dust of his newfound success.

At a gig in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Blake is interviewed by a local reporter, Jean Craddock (Maggie Gyllenhall), and the two become fast friends and a romantic attraction stirs in both their hearts. Jean, like Blake, has suffered disappointments and failures in the past, and perhaps this uniting of two broken and bruised souls is the catalyst for the brief love they share. If Crazy Heart has a fault, it’s that we know where the story is going midway through the feature. We know Bad and Jean can’t be together and we know somehow he’ll break her trust because of his abuse of alcohol. And that’s just what happens. That could be seen as a sad, sobering juncture in the movie, but this story isn’t about love and romance, it’s about life and redemption, however clichéd that might sound. Jean wasn’t the love of Blake’s life, but she was the spark that saved him.

I absolutely loved Crazy Heart and Jeff Bridges is utterly compelling and believable as Bad Blake. I’d say I was surprised, but really we’ve come to expect this from Bridges. From Starman to The Big Lebowski to even Iron Man, his acting is strong, bold and his characters are always stunning. I also can’t say enough about the soundtrack, on which Bridges, Farrell, and Robert Duvall all do their own singing. Credit T-Bone Burnett (who also worked on O Brother, Where Art Thou?) for another masterful musical creation. I particularly liked Fallin’ & Flyin’, as well as the oft played The Weary Kind.

I encourage you to give Crazy Heart a chance and make the trip to Ogden or Salt Lake City to see the movie. If you’re like me, you’ll walk away with the subtle and hope-filled feeling that no matter what or where life has taken you, it’s never too late to find yourself and be happy. And when it comes down to it, cinema that leaves you with that breathless optimism is indeed great.

Color me corrected. As, Tyler notes below. Avatar wants me to suck it.

Avatar will break both records and break them quite handily, most likely in the next two weeks, if not sooner. Considering James Cameron’s space odyssey will get nominated for – and possibly win – the best picture Oscar, would it be insane to suggest Avatar could come close to the $700 million mark domestically? More importantly, what is the driving thrust behind all the interest? Is this the work of more expensive tickets (3D and IMAX), or is this simply a magical movie?

Listen, I gave Avatar a B plus. I loved it. But did I think it would be the eventual all-time box office champ? Not in a million years.

Please, discuss – I’d like to know everyone’s thoughts on the matter.