Now the question is will next week’s lone release, Shutter Island, take over the top spot? I’m going to say no. As of today, I’d say next weekend finishes like this:

• Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief
• Shutter Island
• Avatar
• Valentine’s Day
• The Wolfman

Agree? Disagree? While I’m pining for Shutter Island, I just don’t see a dark, brooding Martin Scorsese movie coming in as the champ next weekend.

Avatar’s

Despite Avatar’s drop, it has made $630 million in eight weeks. If it wins the best picture Oscar on March 7^th, you know the studio is going to milk every drop and get as much mileage from that victory as possible. I’ve shown that I suck at predicting the box office (since I was the one who said Avatar wouldn’t break the global or domestic box office grip of Titanic), but I have a feeling Avatar will settle in the record books somewhere near $695 million.

Avatar

Oscar nominations will be announced February 2, 2010 and the awards telecast is on March 7, 2010, so we’ll see how much momentum the Golden Globe win gives Avatar heading into Hollywood’s biggest and most prestigious awards ceremony. Personally, I think Avatar has the best picture Oscar wrapped up, but then again I was hoping Slumdog Millionaire would receive a swift kick to the cinematic balls. Next to Shakespeare in Love, Slumdog Millionaire was one of the most over-hyped, bland best picture winners in recent memory. I’d probably stick Crash into that basket, too.

What does that mean for “Transformers?” It means Optimus Prime and Company won’t knock of “Titanic” like some of the weak-minded rabble has shouted from the peanut gallery. It also means this movie is potentially vulnerable this weekend. I thought it would take the arrival of Harry Potter to knock off the Autobots and Decepticons, but who knows, maybe Bruno could knock Michael Bay’s craptastic sequel to the curb.

With “Transformers” and “Ice Age” nabbing spots one and two, the rest of the box office was as predicted – “Public Enemies,” opening to mixed reviews, pulled down $25 million, followed by the ever-strong, ever-likable “The Proposal” at $12 million and “The Hangover” with $11 million. Both “Star Trek” and “Terminator Salvation” dropped out of the top ten this weekend.

With “Public Enemies” as the only real competition for the July 4^th weekend, I’m guessing you’ll see “Revenge of the Fallen” come close to the $300 million mark by July 5^th. After that, it’s all up in the air. Aside from “Harry Potter and The Half-Blood Prince” there is nothing that would seem capable of knocking “Revenge of the Fallen” from a top two placement from here on out. That is, only Harry Potter and perhaps negative word of mouth. But that seems unlikely. Based on my observations at the theater, people loved the second installment of Bay’s robots-in-disguise saga.

The top five was rounded out by “The Proposal” ($18,466,000), “The Hangover” ($17,215,000), “Up” ($13,046,000) and “My Sister’s Keeper” ($12,030,000). “Land of the Lost” and “Terminator Salvation” dropped out of the top ten, barely grossing $1 million and I’m pretty sure we won’t hear from them until their respective DVD/Blu-ray releases.

Don't be glum! You won!

These are just estimates, but it appears “The Hangover” ($33,415,000) has repeated as box office champ, with “Up” ($30,515,000) coming in a strong second, in virtual spitting distance of the “surprise” R-rated comedy. John Travolta and Denzel came in third with “The Taking of Pelham 123″ ($25,000,000), and the top five was rounded out by “Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian” ($9,600,000) and “Land of the Lost” ($9,153,000). Paramount Pictures must be thrilled their Eddie Murphy-headlined “Imagine That” got walloped by two movies that have been in release for more than two weeks, but then, really, did you expect anything less? I know I didn’t and that’s why my box office hot streak remains intact (that’s right, I don’t count last week as a loss).

The Andy-adored, Dan-nitpicked adult comedy The Hangover pulled in $43.3 million, which, if distributed equitably, could pay off all the mortgages of AATM’s readers and allow the founders to retire to the life of temperate weather, inconsequential accumulation and mild impropriety promised by birthright via the American dream. That’s a more than decent haul and deserves a big pat on the back for word of mouth, hype and a relentless Warner Brothers marketing department. Land of the Lost was a distant third, with $19 million, which, incidentally, would still pay off quite a few mortgages. That tally also means not as many people thought Land of the Lost was worth revisiting after 35 years– that or “family movies” with family-unfriendly humor isn’t going to be attended by families. Go figure.

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Lowest Comon Denominator and Star Trek: They Like Us, They Really Really Like Us rounded out the top 5. Terminator Salvation is still holding on at a number 6, with last week’s glowingingly reviewed Drag Me to Hell plummeting straight to its namesake with a summer-mild 53% drop– but considering how little it was seen last week, that’s a lot. The other new release, My Life in Ruins (aka the Grecian return of Nia “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” Vardalos) debuted at number 9. Angels & Demons and Dance Flick are in the mix there somewhere as well, but at this point, considering the length of this post and the titles themselves, I’m sure you don’t care.

Frankly, I can’t see “Up” relinquishing the top spot anytime soon, either. I don’t think upcoming releases “Land of the Lost” (6/5),”The Taking of Pelham 123″ (6/12), “The Proposal” (6/19) or “Year One” (6/19) have the muscle to dethrone Pixar. No, “Up” will enjoy its top-spot perch until “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” hits theaters on June 24^th.

At any rate, Pixar movies kicking derrière at the box office is nothing new. In fact, it’s getting to be old hat for these wizards of computer animation. Even if their recent movies don’t get into the $300 million range like 2003′s “Finding Nemo,” they haven’t made anything less than $162 million and have the added bonus of unanimous positive reviews from film critics. After watching the trailer for “Toy Story 3,” I think it’s safe to say this trend will not cease anytime soon.

Hauling in over $76 million for it’s four day opening, the Trek that went pee-pee on Rodenberry’s grave earned $25 million more than the highest grossing (adjusted for inflation, of course) Trek film, First Contact… which, incidentally, also dealt with time travel. Come to think of it, with about 1/3 of the Trek movies dealing with time travel as a major plot point, maybe it’s time to let that one go.

In other news you probably won’t care about, Next Day Air was looking like a real contender, and almost took it to the Trek reboot with $4 million and number six slot.

It. Was. That. Close.

Last week’s money-printer, Wolverine, took a big slip to number two (and $27 million) with a 68% drop. Expected, with such a high profile debut coming in the very next Friday, but still really, really big nonetheless.

This week we’ll see Angels & Demons take a crack at the title of “Largest Opener: 2009″. While The Davinci CodeAngels raked in the dough acouple years back– I’m not sure is going to do the same. Still, with Tom Hanks’ rebooted haircut, it might still have an edge.

As a testament to how much Wolverine did dominate (to be fair, against weak competition), Ghosts of Girlfriends Past only managed $15 million but came in second. New Line must be pleased either way. The other opener, Battle For Terra, didn’t even come in 8th as I’d optimistically predicted here… it came in 12th– cold-cocked clean out of the ring and landing on its face two spots out of the top 10 entirely. Look for a quick bow on DVD. I’m guessing July/August, should anyone care.

The hits keep rolling, with, as mentioned, Star Trek and Andy’s must-miss: Next Day Air opening in just short five days. Welcome, Summer. It’s been too long.

"Monsters vs. Aliens" Wins the Weekend Box Office

DreamWorks “Monsters vs. Aliens” was the weekend’s box office champion after raking in $58 million in ticket sales. The CGI animated sci-fi comedy was trailed by “The Haunting in Conneticut” ($23,010,000), “Knowing” ($14,705,000), “I Love You, Man” ($12,600,000) and “Duplicity” ($7,556,000).  

I also expect “Monsters vs. Aliens” to be the winner next weekend, as the only new entries to the box office are the not-screened-for-critics (meaning a 99.9 percent chance of sucking) “Fast & Furious” and the very adult “Adventureland.”