1) THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU will underperform; so will AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY
Another year, another round of franchise fatigue meets shifting audience habits. THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU is beloved on the small screen, but theatrical alchemy isn’t guaranteed – especially if the story feels like a stretched episode rather than a must-see event. AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY has pedigree and premise, but unless something changes and the full trailers blow people out of the water, this train has sailed. Even then, hype hasn’t always translated post-pandemic. Expect strong openings and softer legs as casuals wait for streaming.
2) Say goodbye to “Dunesday” as DUNE MESSIAH will move its release date
Studios love synergy, but they love clean runways more. If stacking prestige titles or VFX-heavy tentpoles cannibalizes IMAX screens, DUNE MESSIAH blinks to a smarter corridor. The upside: better premium availability and awards positioning; the downside: social media loses the “Dunesday” meme. The spice will still flow, just on a new weekend where it doesn’t have to fight for bodies and eyeballs with another possible behemoth.
3) Utah will miss Sundance more than Sundance misses Utah
The Sundance Film Festival will not miss Utah. Crazy MAGA politicians like Dan McCay and Trevor Lee can say good riddence all they want to a festival they say doesn’t match Utah values, but they’re wrong. Their hot air is nothing more than feed for their rabid base. Call it the “Calabama” problem: big-state sprawl headaches colliding with small-thinking policies. Meanwhile, Sundance leans into a fresh footprint, more flexible venues, and a refocused industry presence. The net: the brand’s fine; the old host state feels the economic/cultural vacuum.
4) Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY will win Best Picture
If anyone can turn myth into populist prestige, it’s Nolan. Expect grand-scale craft, rigorous structure, and emotional clarity, catnip for both critics and audiences. Voters love mastery they can feel in their bones; this has “consensus winner” energy written all over it.
5) Despite a few underperformers, domestic box office hits $11B
Yes, some big titles stumble. But a deeper, steadier slate + premium formats + family four-quadrants = a healthier baseline. Globally, more movies cross $1B than ever before as international markets stabilize and eventization (PLF, fan screenings, better windows) returns.
Bonus: Netflix’s LITTLE HOUSE ON THE PRAIRIE reboot becomes 2026’s most-watched show. Yup, nostalgia + comfort TV + a modernized take on frontier family dynamics = monster completion rates. Queue-able, shareable, bingeable.
If you missed the show last week where I discussed these predictions, follow this link to listen to the KVNU For the People Movie Show. Past shows can be found here.
Crystal Ball: Andy’s 2026 Film & TV Forecast
1) THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU will underperform; so will AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY
Another year, another round of franchise fatigue meets shifting audience habits. THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU is beloved on the small screen, but theatrical alchemy isn’t guaranteed – especially if the story feels like a stretched episode rather than a must-see event. AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY has pedigree and premise, but unless something changes and the full trailers blow people out of the water, this train has sailed. Even then, hype hasn’t always translated post-pandemic. Expect strong openings and softer legs as casuals wait for streaming.
2) Say goodbye to “Dunesday” as DUNE MESSIAH will move its release date
Studios love synergy, but they love clean runways more. If stacking prestige titles or VFX-heavy tentpoles cannibalizes IMAX screens, DUNE MESSIAH blinks to a smarter corridor. The upside: better premium availability and awards positioning; the downside: social media loses the “Dunesday” meme. The spice will still flow, just on a new weekend where it doesn’t have to fight for bodies and eyeballs with another possible behemoth.
3) Utah will miss Sundance more than Sundance misses Utah
The Sundance Film Festival will not miss Utah. Crazy MAGA politicians like Dan McCay and Trevor Lee can say good riddence all they want to a festival they say doesn’t match Utah values, but they’re wrong. Their hot air is nothing more than feed for their rabid base. Call it the “Calabama” problem: big-state sprawl headaches colliding with small-thinking policies. Meanwhile, Sundance leans into a fresh footprint, more flexible venues, and a refocused industry presence. The net: the brand’s fine; the old host state feels the economic/cultural vacuum.
4) Nolan’s THE ODYSSEY will win Best Picture
If anyone can turn myth into populist prestige, it’s Nolan. Expect grand-scale craft, rigorous structure, and emotional clarity, catnip for both critics and audiences. Voters love mastery they can feel in their bones; this has “consensus winner” energy written all over it.
5) Despite a few underperformers, domestic box office hits $11B
Yes, some big titles stumble. But a deeper, steadier slate + premium formats + family four-quadrants = a healthier baseline. Globally, more movies cross $1B than ever before as international markets stabilize and eventization (PLF, fan screenings, better windows) returns.
Bonus: Netflix’s LITTLE HOUSE ON THE PRAIRIE reboot becomes 2026’s most-watched show. Yup, nostalgia + comfort TV + a modernized take on frontier family dynamics = monster completion rates. Queue-able, shareable, bingeable.
If you missed the show last week where I discussed these predictions, follow this link to listen to the KVNU For the People Movie Show. Past shows can be found here.